Having grown by 25 million units since 2009, as the automotive industry recovers from the global recession, the future looks even brighter. By 2021, according to IHS Automotive, global automobile production will increase by 21 million units.
While it comes as no surprise that China will dominate the demand, there is a considerable upside attached to the North American industry, according to the group. This is to the ability of North America to attract foreign investment.
Europe will see an increase in demand as its domestic markets climb back.
However, Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas.
Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to one percent this year, according to IHS Automotive. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by 4% year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the U.S. and China.
While it currently consumes 70% of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.
“European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to,” said Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.
“Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize,” said Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive, who will be presenting these findings and additional automotive industry insight during a joint presentation with Denis Schemoul during the upcoming IHS Forum in Berlin on May 13.